Tuesday, July 20, 2010

Through a blue lens (3)

My morning: wake up, inform the alarm in my mobile that I am awake and it can shut up now, brush my teeth, rush through a shower, jump into some clothes, rush for tea and breakfast, grab my bike keys, bag and helmet and rush to my office.

What is missing here?

The newspaper.

I have almost completely stopped reading it, I do not follow news channels and I don't intend to in the near future either. I get all my news updates from twitter, the home page of Wikipedia English and occasionally Google news. Those who know me might say this is just another eccentric idea of mine to save paper and do my part of protecting our forests. Those who don't know me, but know people like me in general might say I am doing this because newspapers are "old fashioned", out dated and obsolete.

They would both be wrong. I don't read my newspapers because it is pointless.

A newspaper is worth reading if it is reporting things that need to be reported, if it can affect what I do or how I do something, or if it can give me information that will let me make a better decision. Here my newspaper does none of those. The articles on the front page cover the latest controversies, the inner pages cover current issues that have the potential of becoming the next big controversy and everything else- the international section, the sports and science sections have been outsourced to news agencies.

But why bother? If you don't like newspapers, don't read it. Besides, you already mentioned your alternate sources of information right? Why don't you just be happy with those and leave newspapers alone...

If that is what you are telling me, let explain why that is not how things work.

Disclaimer: I am not an expert in the field of game-theory or allied subjects.

Take a look at this situation.

Ram can build a hut in 5 hours and make a cart in 4 hours.
Sham can build a hut in 2 hours and make a cart in 3 hours.

Time Ram needs to build a hut and make a cart = 5 + 4 = 9 hours.
Time Sham needs to build a hut and make a cart = 2 + 3 = 5 hours.

Sham is better than Ram at both building a hut and making a cart. He does not need Ram. He can live by himself right?

No. Not really.

Suppose Ram ans Sham agree to trade: Ram builds 2 carts and Sham builds 2 huts. Ram trades a hut for a cart.

Time for Ram to build 2 carts = 4 + 4 = 8 hours.
Time for Sham to build 2 huts = 2 + 2 = 4 hours.

When they trade, Ram will have a hut and a cart after 8 hours of work, Sham will have a hut and a cart after 4 hours of work: both have to work 1 hour less!

This is the fundamental advantage of trading. And it only gets better: as Ram keeps making carts, he will become better and better at it and start doing it faster. Hence, the advantages of trade only increases with time. And they both will continue to enjoy the advantages if they continue to co-operate.

This is the reason why humans now live in societies and co-operate. Each person gets to do the thing they are best at and trade it for something else.

But what happens when this co-operation gets hijacked by a third person:

Suppose Arjun walks in with a sword and says "Ram, Sham, give me a house and a hut, and I will spare your life. If you don't obey me, I will kill you".

This is a problem says Ram. What are my options?

I live, Sham lives, Arjun lives: bad.

I live , Sham lives, Arjun dies: very good.

I live, Sham escapes, Arjun lives: Extremely bad. I need to build a hut and a cart for Arjun by myself!

I live, Sham escapes/dies, Arjun dies: not good, also not likely to happen, Besides, I'll be back to working 9 hours.

I escape, Sham lives, Arjun lives: not very good. I'll be back to working 9 hours.

I escape, Sham lives, Arjun dies: Pointless.

I escape, Sham escapes, Arjun lives: Pretty good. We can start over again.

I escape, Sham escapes, Arjun dies: Pointless. If Arjun dies, we don't need to escape.


In short, the best options I have are:

1. I live , Sham lives, Arjun dies: very good.
2. I escape, Sham escapes, Arjun lives: Pretty good. We can start over again.
3. I escape, Sham lives, Arjun lives: not very good. I'll be back to working 9 hours.

Working together, me and Sham can get rid of Arjun. Or working together, me and Sham can escape together.

So my best options come from working WITH Sham, and the next best thing to do, if Sham doesn't co-operate with me is to ditch him and flee.

---

On a much larger scale, this is happening with our government and us. We live together, co-operate and enjoy life. As part of this co-operation, some of us volunteer to manage administration and participate in a democratic process of forming a government, and everyone benefits and more importantly, you benefit.

What happens when this gets hijacked? The hijackers here are the corrupt politicians who play vote bank politics, embezzle tax payers money and return nothing positive to the community. Newspapers benefit by supporting the hijackers. The newspapers never go beyond the obvious, and start telling us we can trust each other and work together to get rid of them. You get the picture. What options do we have? Its pretty much similar.

1. You and I work together to get rid of the Arjuns here.
2. You and I escape and start afresh somewhere else.
3. I escape, and let you do what you please here.

The only difference, was that Ram knew he could trust Sham. They traded with each other, co-operated and came to a point when they knew they could trust each other. That is not always the case with you and I. You don't trust me, I'm homosexual. I don't trust you, you think I'm a disgrace to all creation for violating your so called "natural law" of heterosexuality and you would love to see me die.

Back in the days of the cold war, mathematicians developed a theory to model a situation where people don't trust each other. A classic example is the famous "prisoner's dilemma" problem

Two random people who don't know each other or trust each other decide to get together and rob a bank. They get caught. They are put into two separate cells and not allowed to communicate.

Each one is told:
1. You confess the other guy did it, and he doesn't confess, he goes to jail for 10 years, you walk free.
2. You don't confess, he confesses you did it, he walks away, you go to jail for 10 years.
3. Both of you confess, both of you go to jail for 5 years.
4. Neither of you confess, then if we find evidence, you'll both go to jail for 5 years. if we don't find evidence, you both walk away.

Although by not confessing, both of them have a chance to get away, they don't know how much to trust the other guy. They will reason the best option is to confess the other guy did it and both will land up going to jail for 5 years.

If Ram and Sham didn't trust each other, although by working together, they could have gotten rid of Arjun, they will reason the best option is to escape and leave the other one to his fate. In the end, they will both land up escaping, and will have to start from scratch again.

If we don't trust each other, I'm going to get out of here and and let you rot here with your crazy ideals. But there is a better way. We can trust each other. As a sign of my trustworthiness, I tried exposing a major hunting racket involving a lot of "VIPs". Someone up in the high office didn't like it. Sent a journalist after me to ruin my credibility and me. Dash had to kill her to save me.

I'm not sorry Dash. You and I both believe in the same thing. You gave up everything, even your dreams for setting this place right, just like I have to now. You did what you have to do.

I'm writing this on your behalf to tell the world that you are still here, alive and safe. To tell the world you are risking your life again for our sake. I'm telling the world they can count on you Dash.

We can get through this. You asked me who rules the world once.

Numbers rule the world Dash. It is numbers and people who understand them that rule this world. No matter what Ram or Sham choose, by their own free will, their actions will always be governed by numbers that tell them it is better to trade, it is better to trust.

You, reading this, listen to me now. The numbers are playing out in our favor. If we can trust each other, we can get rid of the Arjuns here. If you don't trust us, or each other, the brain drain will only continue as everyone opts for the next best option: flee this country and settle in the US or UK. This is our last chance to take a stand: will you work with me? Can we work together to get rid of the shit hijacking our country? Or will you just let me and Dash join the thousands of others who have already fled this place.

Where do we go from here?

You tell me.

-- Kevin
(If Dheeraj is your name Dash, then Kevin is mine.)